What’s Happening to Our Beef Supply
Janelle Zabel - Fourth generation family farmer and rancher in Western Oklahoma
Fewer Ranchers, Fewer Cattle, Higher Prices, What Families Need to Know
You’ve probably noticed that beef prices keep climbing. Maybe you’ve also wondered why it’s getting harder to find real, pasture-raised beef that actually tastes the way beef should.
It’s not your imagination. Right now, we have the smallest national cow herd since 1950, and that’s driving up prices and making it harder for families to access high-quality, locally raised beef.
But there’s more to this story than just numbers. The land we raise cattle on is disappearing. If we don’t protect it, independent ranching, and the ability to buy real beef from real people, may not be around for future generations.
The good news? You’re not powerless in this. In fact, families like yours are the solution.
Why Are Beef Prices So High?
Cattle Herds Are Shrinking Fast: Right now, we have the lowest number of beef cattle in the U.S. since 1950, and it’s still dropping. The USDA’s 2024 Cattle Inventory Report showed a 3% decline in beef cattle numbers from the previous year, continuing a downward trend that started in 2019.
Why? Because ranchers are being forced to sell off their cattle due to extreme market volatility, drought, and soaring input costs.
Ranchers Can’t Afford to Hold Onto Cattle: Raising cattle isn’t cheap, and when the market swings high, ranchers must sell to stay financially stable.
Droughts shrink pastures: Less available grass means ranchers must rely on expensive supplemental feed.
Feed costs are skyrocketing: Corn and hay prices have surged in the past few years, making it too expensive to keep cattle through the winter.
Interest rates are rising: Many ranchers use loans to buy cattle, equipment, and feed. Higher interest rates increase debt, forcing them to sell cattle sooner.
When you combine these pressures, holding onto cattle in hopes of a future price increase isn't an option because the cost of keeping them alive can wipe out a ranch overnight.
Economists have a saying: "High prices cure high prices." Right now, cattle prices are high, but that won’t last forever.
When beef becomes too expensive, consumers buy less of it, opting for cheaper proteins like pork or chicken. When demand drops, so do cattle prices, often dramatically.
Ranchers are forced to sell while prices are high, knowing that if they wait too long, they could be left holding cattle they can’t afford to feed, with no one willing to pay for them.
In 2014-2015, we saw a similar cattle market boom, followed by a dramatic crash in 2016, wiping out ranchers who didn’t sell at the right time. Those who waited lost everything.
What This Means for You & Your Family
Grocery store beef prices will keep climbing. With fewer cattle and rising costs, your food bill will continue to go up.
Fewer options for high-quality, locally raised beef. Small ranches are the best source for responsibly raised, pasture-fed beef, but as they disappear, large corporate operations take over.
Less control over your food supply. The more centralized food production becomes, the more vulnerable the system is to disruptions and price spikes. Ranchers like us want to keep feeding our communities, but we need families like yours to see the value in local beef before it's too late.
How You Can Take Control & Make a Difference
Families who buy direct from a local rancher never go back to grocery store meat. They realize they’ve been overpaying for lower quality and missing out on beef that’s raised right, naturally flavorful, and stocked in their freezer whenever they need it.
Stock Your Freezer with Local Beef: Skip the middleman and get the best beef direct from the ranch.
Get to Know Your Rancher: When you buy local, you know exactly where your beef comes from, how it was raised, and that it’s free of unnecessary additives.
Protect Local Agriculture: Stay informed about policies affecting farmland, support local food initiatives, and be mindful of where your beef comes from. Every purchase shapes the future of ranching in America.
Still Have Questions? Let’s chat! Comment below or send a message, we’d love to help. www.zabel.co/contact
